Today’s the day six Republican state senators in my home state of Wisconsin face recall votes. Past is prologue, so here’s how they did in the 2008 elections, last time they were up:
SD 2 – Cowles: Unopposed
SD 8 – Darling: 51%
SD 10: Harsdorf: 56%
SD 14: Olsen: Unopposed
SD 18: Hopper: 50%
SD 32: Kapanke: 51%
This record suggests that if the Democrats are going to pick up the three seats they need, it’ll most likely be Hopper, Kapanke, and Darling that will need to go down to defeat. People in Wisconsin seem to think that Kapanke, especially, is toast – and polls seem to back this up. The current conventional wisdom is that Olsen, who represents a district that includes Ripon, where the Republican Party was founded in 1854, is also vulnerable.
Massive, shocking sums of money have been spent by outside groups in these races, but since this spending has occurred on all sides, the usual presumptions about a district’s past history being the best guide are likely to apply.
I guess it will all depend on turnout and enthusiasm? Which side do you think is more revved up? And wouldn’t it just be fitting if the Dems pick up the 3 seats, only to give it back next week?
I spent some time in Wisconsin earlier this summer, but I was in Madison – a liberal stronghold and not the site of these recall elections. Having said that, the left was more revved up than I’ve ever seen the left in Madison. Months after the protests ended, everyone was still talking about them, wearing t-shirts, etc. Democrats will undoubtedly benefit from that organization, but I have no sense of how organized the Republicans are. Kapanke’s got a big union presence in his district, so that’s one of the reasons people suspect he’s a goner.
Are you watching the election returns?
Off and on. Love it when the data turn out to be correct: Hopper, Kapanke, and Darling are the only races not yet called, and the only ones left where the incumbents could lose.
…and Kapanke goes down. Two to go!
The other two look pretty close, so this could take a while. A good time to go to bed, I think.
Wow… you called it. Kapanke, Hopper, and Darling!